The United States Geological Service is modeling the effects of climate change on various basins around the U.S. Here’s a release from the agency (Kara Capelli):
“We are unlikely to see a ‘water-as-usual’ future.” – Marcia McNutt, USGS Director
Arguably, the most important impacts of climate change – including those to ecosystems, agriculture, energy, and industry – will be tied to changes in water availability, especially as the world becomes increasingly water-stressed. It’s crucial that water managers understand the likely impacts of climate change, so that they can plan for new conditions and challenges.
How will your water be affected?
Understanding the impacts that climate change will have on water availability in specific regions and communities is a mammoth task. Water availability in every region, basin, and watershed will be affected differently, depending on the specific precipitation and hydrologic conditions in that area.
Also, for all of the models and technology we have available at our 21st century finger tips, weather patterns are still notoriously unpredictable. Forecasting future precipitation conditions is even more difficult, especially under new climate scenarios, and changes to weather patterns will vary across the country.
Complicating water availability predictions further, each basin has its own unique set of hydrologic and geologic features that affect how much water is available, where that water comes from, and how it flows through a system.
Little by little, though, scientists are beginning to build the information and tools to understand the nuanced effects of climate change to the Nation’s water resources.
USGS predicting changes to water availability in 14 basins across the Nation
In a first-of-its-kind study, scientists from the USGS have predicted changes to water resources for 14 different basins across the country.
First, the scientists downscaled vast climate models, in order to understand changes in temperature and precipitation specific to the 14 study basins. They then used USGS hydrologic models and streamgage information to project how water resources will be impacted by the changing weather patterns, taking into account specific hydrologic and geologic features in each basin, such as snowpack, drought, and groundwater conditions.
For example, the USGS models project that changes to snowpack in the Sprague River Basin in Oregon could cause annual peak streamflows to occur earlier in the spring as overall basin storage decreases. This means that managers may be forced to modify storage operation and reprioritize water delivery for environmental and human needs.
In many areas the biggest impacts to water resources will be a factor of reduced snowpack. For example snowpack in the headwaters of the Colorado River could affect the amount and timing of streamflow to the Colorado River and also impact important recreation areas.
Portions of Maine may see higher streamflows, which could affect populations of endangered Atlantic salmon. On the other hand, areas of the already drought-stressed Flint River Basin, one of Atlanta’s primary drinking water supplies, are projected to become even drier.
More USGS coverage here.